TwistPoker

Pot odds and required equity calculator

Enter the pot before the bet, the bet you face and what it costs you to call. Add your equity if you know it, from the outs or equity calculator, to see whether the call pays.

Follows the bet until you edit it

Equity needed to call

25.0%

Call 50 to win a final pot of 200: pot odds of 3.00 : 1.

At 19.1% equity the call is worth -11.8 chips on average compared with folding, so it loses on the current pot. It would break even if you expected to win about 61.8 more on later streets when you hit.

How to use it

Pot before the bet is everything already in the middle when the action reaches the bettor, including earlier streets and anyone else who has called. Bet you face is the bet itself. Cost to call is what you must add; it equals the bet unless you already have chips in this round, for example as the big blind or after a raise. Equity is optional: without it you still get the break-even figure.

Amounts are in chips, but any unit works as long as all three use the same one. Only the ratios matter.

The formulas

The expected value is measured against folding, which costs nothing from this point on. Chips you put in earlier are already part of the pot and do not count against the call: they are gone either way.

Worked example

The pot is 100, your opponent bets 50, and you hold a flush draw on the flop. A call costs 50 to play for a final pot of 200, so you need 50 / 200 = 25% equity, or pot odds of 3 to 1.

If your opponent will bet again on the turn, the honest equity for this decision is the chance of hitting on the very next card: 9/47 = 19.1%. The expected value is 0.191 × 200 − 50 = −11.8 chips, so on the current pot the call loses. To break even you would need to win about 50 / 0.191 − 200 = 61.8 more on average when the flush comes in. Whether that is realistic depends on the opponent and the stack sizes. If the opponent were all-in instead, you would see both cards for one price and could use the two-card figure of 35.0%, which makes the call clearly profitable: 0.35 × 200 − 50 = +20.

Bet sizes and what they demand

The same arithmetic applies from both sides of the table. For a bet of f times the pot, a caller needs f / (1 + 2f) equity; a pure bluff needs to work f / (1 + f) of the time; and minimum defence frequency, the share of hands a defender must continue with so a bluff does not profit automatically, is 1 / (1 + f).

Bet size Pot odds Caller needs Bluff must work Min. defence
25% pot 5.00 : 1 16.7% 20.0% 80.0%
33% pot 4.03 : 1 19.9% 24.8% 75.2%
50% pot 3.00 : 1 25.0% 33.3% 66.7%
66% pot 2.52 : 1 28.4% 39.8% 60.2%
75% pot 2.33 : 1 30.0% 42.9% 57.1%
Pot 2.00 : 1 33.3% 50.0% 50.0%
1.5× pot 1.67 : 1 37.5% 60.0% 40.0%
2× pot 1.50 : 1 40.0% 66.7% 33.3%

Where pot odds stop being enough

Pot odds assume the hand ends after this call, or that you have already accounted for the rest. They ignore reverse implied odds, the extra you lose when you hit a hand that is second best, such as a low flush against a higher one. They treat your equity as known when it is usually an estimate against a range of hands. And they do not include the chance your opponent folds later, which matters when you are the one betting.

In tournaments, chips and prize value are not the same thing near the payouts, so a call that is correct by chip expectation can be wrong by prize expectation. The ICM calculator shows how much a stack is actually worth.

Common questions

How do you calculate pot odds?

Add up everything in the pot after you call, including the bet you are facing and your own call, and divide your call by that total. Calling 50 into a pot of 100 plus a 50 bet is 50 / 200 = 25%. Your hand needs at least that much equity for the call to break even. As a ratio, the same thing is 150 to 50, or 3 to 1.

Why do my pot odds not match the percentage?

Because ratios and percentages count differently. Odds of 3 to 1 mean three parts against one part for, which is one in four, or 25%. To convert a ratio of X to 1 into the equity you need, compute 1 / (X + 1).

What are implied odds?

Chips you expect to win on later streets when you hit. If the current pot does not justify a call, implied odds ask how much more you would need to win afterwards to make it break even. They are only real if your opponent is likely to pay you off and has the chips to do so, which is a judgement, not a calculation.

What is minimum defence frequency?

The share of your range you need to continue with so that an opponent's pure bluff does not automatically profit. Against a pot-sized bet it is 50%, against a half-pot bet 67%. It is a theoretical guide for balanced play, not a rule that you must call with any particular hand.

Does a positive expected value mean the call wins?

No. Expected value is the average result over many identical situations. A call with 30% equity when you need 25% loses seven times in ten and still gains chips on average. Individual hands are noisy; the arithmetic is about the long run.